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Mortgage Market Update 8.16.12

| August 16, 2012 | 0 Comments


In trading overnight the bellwether 10 yr note yield climbed to 1.855% after ending yesterday in the US at 1.81%. This morning the 10 yr has backed down to 1.81% in early trading. Weekly jobless claims were rather benign, up 2K to 366K; claims have been stable now for the last month hanging around 360K to 370K. That claims are flat (not falling or increasing) implies businesses are no long firing but equally not hiring. The four-week moving average, a less volatile measure, dropped to 363,750, the fewest since the week ended March 31.  July housing starts were expected to decline 1.4%, as reported -1.1% after increasing 6.8% in June. July building permits were expected up 1.4%, as reported up 6.8%. Building permits, a proxy for future construction, rose to an 812,000 pace, the most since August 2008.

  Interest rates have increased on two fronts; less fear over Europe’s debt and economic crisis waning at the moment and less belief now that the Fed will ease in Sept. Better economic reports recently have taken the QE off the front burner. At the last FOMC meeting the Fed said it would closely monitor economic activity to determine whether the economy needs more easing, given the improving data markets are now less certain the Fed will act. The two issues have combined to send interest rates on long dated treasuries up 40 basis points in rate (10 yr note) and mortgage rates higher in turn. Yesterday Goldman Sachs was out arguing that the fed won’t ease in Sept, Goldman carries weight in markets.

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