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Market Update 4.20.12

| June 20, 2012 | 0 Comments

Market Commentary: 4.20.12

Speculation that the Federal Reserve will announce measures to support the economy when its two-day meeting concludes sent US stocks higher yesterday.  Treasuries lost their lustre with 10-yr notes closing down at 1.62%.  How the Fed will act (or whether it will at all) remains uncertain, but expectations are running high that the Fed will extend Operation Twist in an effort to keep long-term borrowing costs lower for both consumers and businesses.

Treasuries and mortgages opened weaker this morning ahead of the FOMC statement this afternoon. The consensus is that the Fed will extend Operation Twist at the meeting. The view of more buying at the long end while selling short maturities has grown rapidly this week so it’s likely that the Fed will bow to the markets. Fifty-eight percent of respondents in a June 18 poll said the Fed will prolong the program, which seeks to lower borrowing costs by extending the average maturity of the securities in the central bank’s portfolio.  At the same time, with inflation close to their 2% goal and the Greek election reducing the risk of a euro breakup, they may decide an additional round of quantitative easing isn’t needed for now The current program ends this month. later this afternoon Bernanke will hold his press conference, generally just more detail about the meeting but Q&A should be interesting given Europe and its impact on the global economy.

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